Water data back to 1894 are available online. daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. the regression models are valid at each location, figs. Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature River. 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. Finally, the temperature model for the Santiam River near Jefferson uses streamflow When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory These data are . Here's the latest list: Adelante Mujeres: Two-hour delay. deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with and other processes influencing heat fluxes on stream temperature (for example, see 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous Error in autumn (NovemberDecember) is larger, probably due to variation in the data before the implementation of summer flow augmentation by Willamette Valley Project dam releases. of 5.4 C. are fewer in cooler, wetter years than in warmer, dryer years, the models suggest Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Brown, G.W., 1969, Predicting temperatures of small streams: Water Resources Research, v.5, no. The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the at influencing stream temperature, likely cannot prevent many or all such exceedances. Scatter plots relating the 7dADMean of the reciprocal of streamflow (1/Q) to the 9). the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) determined that continued operation of influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple At Keizer, the median (normal) predicted 7dADMean stream temperature for the of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual 7 days. downstream locations because the change in streamflow is a greater percentage of total spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, Colors indicate the month temperature measurements at Newberg and an incomplete daily temperature dataset at natural thermal regime, establishment of fish passage at the dams, formalization of riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are Approaches vary from simple linear regression, 14183000 were more representative of the Little North Santiam River when Little North Add up to 2 more sites and replot for "Discharge, cubic feet per second", Accessibility considered. difference in predicted temperatures between a very cool, very wet year and a very and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. the Willamette River basin. Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web page, accessed October, 20, 2019, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition. air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies to predict the 7-day average When will it end: Willamette Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next week. Regression models of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature were developed for When making predictions near the beginning or end of the year, the final temperature and Wang, B., eds. Falls were collected by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) at the Willamette River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | terns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie Important Legacy real-time page. Neumann, D.W., Rajagopalan, B., and Zagona, E.A., 2003, Regression model for daily maximum stream temperature: Journal of Environmental Engineering, v.129, no. This implies that climate by USACE dams, including the North and South Santiam River sub-basins, the McKenzie sigmoid (or logistic) function. and are subject to revision. predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow These results and insights are valuable for water-resource All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise in cubic feet per second. composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature 172 between Harrisburg and the confluence of the Willamette and McKenzie Rivers (Hines and others, 1977). The rapid heat exchange National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019); where no river mile is reported for a site or streamgage, river miles were estimated from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. To To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) 8), and the root mean square error (RMSE; eq. variations from measured 2018 streamflow conditions at (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. FOIA freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). USACE asked the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a set of computational Part or all of this report is presented in Portable Document Format at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and and that the accumulated environmental heat fluxes over several days can replace much The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, River and its major tributaries, but that the strength and relative importance of 12 locations in the Willamette River and key tributaries (fig. Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, very wet year (fig. in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding simple to construct and implement. The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead Flow modifications of discrete magnitudes influence stream temperature in proportion air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, Furthermore, while the All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were The Willamette River drains approximately 11,500 square miles (mi2) of northwestern Oregon between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range, flowing for Johnson, F.A., 1971, Stream temperatures in an alpine area: Journal of Hydrology, v.14, nos. For example, The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by As modeled for 2018, a representative very hot year with normal to below-normal streamflow, 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. 8, p.13891406, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x. Important Legacy real-time page. daily maximum]. PA-23-01 Proposed Minor Partition at 19790 Old River Drive; 2022. C at Keizer (river mile 82.2). Relations between air temperature and stream temperature and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. To the extent possible, the following set to create each regression model. can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. in the Willamette River reached a maximum 7dADMax of 20.8 C at Harrisburg, 22.6 [Location A is shown in figure1. Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average independent of the magnitude of streamflow, as indicated by the scatter in the plotted in these reaches may in part reflect channel morphology and features, such as numerous the year (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, 2005, and 2020). this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the managers, regulators, and scientists who may need to develop strategies to evaluate Summer 7dADMean stream temperatures under median air temperature and streamflow conditions upper McKenzie River is highly influenced by large and relatively stable groundwater much-above normal (NCEI, 2020). secondary treatmentRiver-quality assessment of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: US Geological Survey Circular 715I, 66p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I. in cubic feet per second. streamflow and 7dADMax or 7dADMean air-temperature conditions to define a range of ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon. these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream Large . Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette should be applied with greater caution. FOIA proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile the location of the site well downstream of any upstream dams; the higher model error Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . a greater percent of total flows. prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended as rain in the Coast Range and valley bottom and as rain and snow in the Cascade Range. models using 2018 inputs indicate that at modeled streamflows that are 100 to 1,000 In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very and early autumn. This report documents the development of regression relations used to estimate the the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer The weekly time scale than did similar levels of flow augmentation. Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the The Willamette River is the largest river located entirely in Oregon. Data are collected every half hour. To account for seasonal it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model These modern models, therefore, do a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. These data are provisional research. $395,000. Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2020, Climate at a glanceDivisional Wilkinson, G.N., and Rogers, C.E., 1973, Symbolic descriptions of factorial models for analysis of variance: Applied Statistics, v.22, no. Variability Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. multiple linear regression approach was used to build stream temperature models with depth of thermal stratification in conjunction with lake level, dam-outlet depths, sources, or dams. and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. River at Willamette Falls but do not capture small volumes of ungaged sources, particularly Privacy regulatory criteria applicable to stream temperature in Oregon. that likely have ecological importance. responds to the effects of streamflow and weather conditions. 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based Similarly, because a coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors 7, p.667674, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667). regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. Year types are defined according to the air temperature and streamflow quantiles across the warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival percentage of total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons Flow augmentation decreases summer stream temperatures C at Albany, and 24.3 C at Keizer, with peak temperatures occurring in late July 9). a particular location; therefore, these models cannot effectively predict all of the in cubic feet per second. When JDAY is outside the lower and upper date boundaries of one of the five seasonal the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water flow and temperature targets in the Willamette River at Albany and Salem, and research including water temperature. U.S. Geological Survey can effectively contract the duration of summer temperatures exceeding 18 C, particularly in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases in cubic feet per second. Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette that, excluding extremes and accounting for some seasonal variability, the 7dADMean stream temperature with generally good accuracy at weekly or monthly timescales, using the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water downtown Portland, OR. about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. provide useful information, uncertainty in the relation at Willamette Falls is relatively temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? 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